Sometimes the Numbers do tell a story
It feels that in the twenty first century there has been a growing, maybe now myopic, focus on data (numbers) at the expense of judgement. However sometimes the numbers do tell a story. Here are some numbers to consider and perhaps help to form a judgement:
The USA has announced that it will meet its target of producing 90,000 155mm rounds per month earlier than planned.
Hanwha has stated that, with the support of the South Korean Government, it will establish in 2024 a third production line for the K9 155mm Howitzer. This will increase annual production capacity to 240 systems. The European capacity for 155mm howitzers of various types is likely to be orders of magnitude lower than this.
In October 2023, France, which has one of the more capable ammunition manufacturing capabilities in Europe, announced that it has achieved a tripling of 155mm production to 3000 rounds per month.
In November 2023 the EU admitted, to no one’s surprise, that it would fail in to produce 1,000,000 155mm rounds for Ukraine.
There are a number of points that can be made regarding the details of 155mm systems, and the variety of them in Europe. I suggest the more important conclusion to be drawn is that after 21 months of war in Europe, the nations of Europe, possibly with a couple of notable exceptions (Poland?), have failed to respond. The paradigm shifts in defence posture and economic focus that would be reasonable to expect have not happened.
There is an apparent vacuum in the political discourse in nations such as the UK relating to the consequences of any sort of success for the Russian aggression and the changes needed to properly respond to it.
It is an obvious statement to say that NATO / Europe is dependent on the USA for leadership and its defence. The apparent complacency of Europe would be almost understandable if there were no question marks over the USA’s role. However the 2024 election and the current state of Congress makes the absence of action and public debate in Europe more alarming. Is it time to say that the emperor, in the form of European defence, has no clothes.
Perhaps my judgement is flawed; I could be wrong. I hope so. Please make your own judgment.
40 years of peace time gave way to irresponsible cuts in defence budgets and unlimited hobby developement of exotic weapons and munitions, all with the result of the above mentioned report. What could we have learned from 2 years of war in Ukraine: it is the volume of fire that matters. The drone war is interesting and spectacular, but he counter drone development is also spectacular. It is still difficult to counter a well-aimed 155 mm projectile barrage other than with a similar counter battery action. There is no electronic weapon against 48 kilograms of steel that arrives at 300 m/s, neither shooting at it is very effective. Still the european politics think that you can make ammunition in a political landscape instead of an industrial landscape. We are still far away from a war economy as currently in Russia but it could be the better solution before the Tsar takes office in Brussels.