The Russian invasion of Ukraine is scrutinised daily, probably hourly, by military and defence officials, academics, commentators and even occasionally politicians. There will be many lessons to learn, however the recognition by NATO allies particularly in Europe and UK of a sixth domain of conflict is long overdue. The failure to learn this lesson will harm European defence.
Three Domains - land, naval and air - provided perspectives on conflicts throughout the twentieth century. In the twenty first century cyber and space were added to the domains that exercise the minds of military planners and to the defence spending across the world. The Russian aggression towards Ukraine has highlighted a sixth domain - the defence industry.
The ability to replenish arms transfers and losses in battle is a key factor in the success of the combatants. It is reported that the Russian defence industry, which was supposed to have benefited from an expensive refit in the last ten years, has not delivered reliable systems and is unable to replenish losses especially under the sanction regime orchestrated by the USA and the EU. On the other side former Soviet Bloc countries are transferring Soviet era weapon systems to the fight in Ukraine under promises of a backfill of NATO standard weapons. Furthermore it is reported that NATO standard weapons are being shipped directly to Ukraine. Whilst the publicity surrounding these shipments is of questionable value it highlights the industrial response necessary to sustain a successful military operation.
The USA has long recognised the essential role that the industrial base plays in building and sustaining a defence capability. The size of the USA budget is the basis of a healthy domestic defence industrial capability. However the USA also depends on offshore technology and supply chains. The Department of Defense (DoD) is careful to assure resilience of such supply chains. The management ands sustainment of the USA defence industrial base, in the USA and overseas, is a key responsibility of the DoD that is regularly scrutinised by Congress. Nevertheless questions are being raised about the transfer of weapon systems such as Javelin and M777 to Ukraine and the impact that will have on the readiness of US forces.
In Europe and the UK the reduction in defence spending following the collapse of the Soviet Union has led to market based, laissez faire, approach to the defence industrial base. In some cases such as UK there has been a sense that the market will provide and that the Government or Customer has no role in managing the market. In other countries such as Germany and France the approach to the defence industry appears to have been driven more by economics than a coherent defence policy. The combined defence spending of Europe and UK would provide the basis for a more active management of the defence industrial base. The EU has started to address the issue and no doubt initiatives such as the European Defence Fund will have an impact, however the importance of the sixth domain as evidenced by the invasion of Ukraine requires more urgent action to mitigate the risk to the defence of Europe. Europe and UK have a fragmented defence industrial base that duplicates capabilities at the expense of critical mass and is therefore itself more expensive than it would be otherwise. For instance France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, UK are amongst those nations that would claim, with some justification, to have an armoured vehicle industry. Can Europe afford to have two programmes to develop and build the next generation air combat system?
In March 2021 UK published a Defence and Security Industrial Strategy (DIS). For the first time the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) acknowledged that it has a role in the management of the monopsonist market for defence products, systems and services. This step forward by the MoD is to be welcomed, however in the year since the publication of DSIS there has been little public evidence of progress with the failure to deliver the Land Industrial Strategy that DSIS promised being particularly noteworthy.
The Russian aggression towards Ukraine is an immediate tragedy for the people of Ukraine. The world that emerges over the coming months is not discernible. If the countries that make up the European pillar of NATO fail to act organise a coherent and resilient defence industrial base that can win in the sixth domain an effective defence of Europe will be beyond them.