Problem Solving - The First Step
Is the UK military and the British Army in particular at risk from Groupthink?
I have the impression that there comes a point in any enquiry into man made, as opposed to natural, disasters when it becomes obvious that all the warning signals were flashing red and hindsight makes it clear that those with the authority and responsibility to make decisions should have immediately and radically changed direction. The warning signals, that are blatantly obvious with hindsight are ignored and events proceed blithely towards poor, if not disastrous outcomes.
A probable cause of this myopia is a severe case of Groupthink. My sense is that the warning signals are flashing red in UK, and European, military affairs. In the UK a pathological focus on governance that justifies decisions has seen process become the apparent purpose. We are now in a position where it is generally accepted1 that the British Army does not have the capability to defeat a peer or near peer adversary and yet all the decisions that have led us to this point are evidence based; justifiable; and are a result of strict adherence to the process.
One reading of the support offered to Ukraine, by UK, Germany and others is that European nations are not only scraping the bottom of the barrel but also gouging chunks out the base of the barrel itself. One assessment of the publicly available information is that the British Army does not have: a Main Battle Tank capability, a 155mm artillery system; a Infantry Fighting Vehicle; an infantry mortar; a usable reconnaissance vehicle; and sufficient people. In addition its main C4I system will become obsolete in the short to medium term and there is no plan to replace it. Of course this assessment is unlikely to be totally accurate, however there is a reasonable chance that it may have some validity. There is no evidence that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and or the Army has any sense that immediate and radical change is required. The process that has brought us to this point may well deliver a capable fighting force at some point. However given the hollowing out of the UK’s land capability and there being no end in sight to the support that the Ukraine will need to defeat Russian aggression an immediate and radical change of course should be considered. It is better to make the change now rather than explain to a enquiry commission that going over the cliff edge was entirely consistent with the process.
A flavour of what might be done:
Recognise that the defence of Europe is the responsibility of all European nations.
Create and immediately implement with other European nations, under the auspices of NATO, a plan to field coherent land forces by recognising that no single nation should have all land capabilities. If 1000 Main Battle Tanks are needed should there be two countries with 500 each or should there be ten countries with 100 each? The former may be more effective. This is true burden sharing.
Drive commonality rather than interoperability, which is an illusion and leads to fragmentation of military and industrial capability.
Address the single points of failure in the European industrial base, to create a resilient supply chain.
For the British Army, shift to a fully operational stance; a war footing:
Review the Challenger 3 programme, perhaps allow others to deliver the MBT.
Invest in 155mm Artillery with other nations to field a common weapon, and a common suite of ammunition, including charges, fuzes, and projectiles including fully guided projectiles.
Stop writing UK specific requirements:
Acquire an off the shelf Infantry Fighting Vehicle.
Acquire an off the shelf current technology C4I system.
Join with other European NATO nations to design resilient supply chains. The market may deliver resilience but not when the focus is on efficiency.
These suggestions are intended to shatter what I perceive to be Groupthink rather than be a prescription for success. It is time to call out that the emperor is unclothed in the hope that the MoD and the British Army in particular take that first crucial step in problem solving - recognising that there is a problem.
See ‘leaked’ comments from the Chief of the General Staff and statements by the Secretary of State for Defence.